Hydrological Outlook

The one- and three-month outlooks for river flows are for normal to above normal flows in the English lowlands and flows within the normal range elsewhere.  The outlooks for groundwater levels over both the one- and three-month timeframes are for above normal levels in southern Scotland, north-east England and central southern England, with normal to above normal levels most likely elsewhere.

Read the full Outlook.

With above average rainfall in the south-east in May after a prolonged period of below average rainfall, the outlook is for normal to above normal river flows across the UK for June. However, this period is expected to be short-lived, and river flows over June-July-August as a whole are likely to return to being normal to below normal.  Groundwater levels in the south-east of England are likely to be below normal to notably low over the next one to three months, whilst levels in southern Scotland are likely to be above normal or higher over this period.

The outlook for April is for river flows and groundwater levels in the south east of England to be normal to below normal, while in the rest of the UK normal river flows and groundwater levels are most likely.

Over the next three months there is the possibility of very low groundwater levels occurring in parts of south-east England (i.e. the Chalk of Kent and Sussex, and possibly the Chilterns). Elsewhere in the UK over this time scale, normal river flows and groundwater levels are most probable.

Following an exceptionally dry October across the majority of the UK, the outlook for November is for river flows to be below normal to normal across the UK, with below normal flows more likely in the south and east. Below normal to normal flows are likely to persist across the south and east of the UK over the next three to six months. Groundwater levels are expected to be within the normal range, except in areas of the southern Chalk which are likely to be below normal over the next three months.

The outlook for October is for river flows to be within the normal range for the majority of the UK; the exception is for Wales where flows are likely to be normal to above normal. Over the three month period to December 2016, river flows are likely to be normal with the exception of the eastern side of Scotland and north east England where flows are likely to be normal to below normal. Groundwater levels are most likely to be normal except for aquifers around the border between England and Scotland where levels are likely to remain above normal.

The outlook for August is for river flows to be normal to above normal in many areas of the UK, particularly in parts of western Britain.  Over the next three months, river flows are more likely to be within the normal range, and normal to above normal in East Anglia.  The outlook for groundwater levels in August is for a continuation of normal to above normal levels across most of the aquifers in the UK.  Groundwater levels are expected to remain above normal over the next three months in some aquifers in northern Britain.