Hydrological Outlook

The outlook for July is for below normal flows across much of England and Wales, with the possibility of notably low flows in some areas. In north-western areas of the UK including north-west England, July is likely to see normal flows. This pattern is likely to persist over the next three months, although it is likely that river flows will return to normal across Wales. For groundwater, levels in July are most likely to be normal or below normal, and this is likely to continue over the next three months.

The outlook for June is for normal to above normal flows in northern parts of the UK, and normal to below normal flows further south. The three month outlook also suggests a broad contrast  between northern and western areas, where normal flows are most likely, and southern and eastern areas where there is a higher chance of below normal flows.

The outlook for May suggests normal river flows are likely in northern Britain, and normal to below-normal flows further south. This reflects the notably low April rainfall across England and Wales, with less than half the monthly average received in most areas; however, early May has been very wet in all regions, which decreases the likelihood of very low flows and increases the chances of above-normal flows in the north. The groundwater outlook is for a similar picture to April, with mostly normal and below-normal levels.

All indications are that river flows and groundwater levels are most likely to be in the normal range throughout the UK during March.

The outlook for river flows and groundwater levels across the UK for February indicates some variability. Above normal river flows are the most likely outcome in north-west Scotland; for the remainder of Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and most coastal areas of England normal to above normal river flows are most likely. For most of central England the most likely outcome is for river flows to be in the normal range. During February groundwater levels are most likely to be in the normal range.

The January 2015 Hydrological Outlook has now been published.

The December 2014 Hydrological Outlook has now been published.

The one month outlook for December is for both river flows and groundwater levels to be within the normal range for most of the UK apart from lowland England, where river flows are likely to be above normal. The three month outlook suggests a similar pattern, but with an increased likelihood of above normal groundwater levels in the Permo-Triassic sandstones of north-west England.