Will there be more flooding in the future?
The challenge
In order to better prepared for climate change policymakers need to be able to know where flooding is likely to increase, or decrease in intensity. Information is needed at suitably fine resolution and reliability to enable climate adaptations to be targeted in the most appropriate places.
The solution
Early climate models provided only the broadest indication of possible changes in rainfall, but with higher resolution climate model outputs CEH was able to integrate these with local land characteristics to show how flood risks are likely to vary across the UK. In addition these improvements quantified the differences in climate driven flood magnitude from Scottish Highlands in the north to London in the south, and the different in response to climate change of permeable catchments (Chalk or sandstone) compared to impermeable catchments (clay, crystalline basement or urban areas).
Resulting benefits
With better information about the scale and location of increasing flood risk, policymakers and industry can target adaptation investments. This information has been used to guide planning for long term infrastructure for the water utilities and transport systems.
Future directions
Improvements in understanding the uncertainties in both climate and hydrological models, with better representation of variables such as CO2 concentrations /vegetation growth / evaporation /runoff relationships in climate and hydrological models.
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